managementscienceУправленческие науки / Management SciencesManagement Sciences2304-022X2618-9941Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2304-022X-2022-12-2-33-44managementscience-365Research ArticleСТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТSTRATEGIC MANAGEMENTСтохастический анализ динамики стратегического соответствия компании «Аэрофлот»Stochastic analysis of dynamics the strategic compliance of company Aeroflothttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1766-8029МихненкоП. А.MikhnenkoP. A.

 доктор экономических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры«Предпринимательство и внешнеэкономическая деятельность» 

Москва

 Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of the Department “Entrepreneurship and Foreign Economic Activity”

Moscow 

pmihnenko@bmstu.ruМосковский государственный технический университет имени Н.Э. БауманаРоссияBauman Moscow State Technical University (National Research University)Russian Federation2022090620221223344Copyright © Михненко П.А., 20222022Михненко П.А.Mikhnenko P.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/365

Использование традиционного SWOT-анализа в условиях динамичной и неопределенной внешней среды не позволяет обоснованно формировать стратегию компании на основе оценок состояния сильных и слабых сторон, возможностей и угроз. Причина в том, что получаемые от экспертов статические оценки текущего состояния внутренних и внешних факторов используются для разработки долгосрочной стратегии, реализация которой требует осуществления организационных изменений. В статье предлагается новый подход к стратегическому анализу, заключающийся в оценивании динамики стратегического соответствия факторов с учетом разброса мнений экспертов (SSMD-анализ). Основу алгоритма расчета итоговых оценок составляет метод определения оптимальной интенсивности стратегических изменений. С использованием методологии SSMD-анализа на основе открытых данных за 2015–2020 гг. проведена экспертиза стратегического соответствия факторов внешней и внутренней среды компании «Аэрофлот» по состоянию на 2020 г. Сделан вывод, что наиболее актуальным в 2020 г. направлением развития компании являлось ускоренное замещение воздушных судов, находящихся в лизинге, на собственные. Предлагаемый метод позволяет оценивать динамический портрет взаимодействия компании с ее внешней средой в условиях информационной неопределенности.

The use of traditional SWOT-analysis in a dynamic and uncertain external environment does not allow to reasonably form the company’s strategy based on assessments of the state of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The reason is that the static assessments of the current state of internal and external factors, obtained from experts, are used to develop a long-term strategy, the implementation of which requires the implementation of organizational changes. The article proposes a new approach to strategic analysis, which consists in evaluating the dynamics of the strategic compliance of factors, taking into account the dispersion of expert opinions (SSMD-analysis). The basis of the algorithm for calculating the final evaluations is the method for determining the optimal intensity of strategic changes. Using the SSMD-analysis methodology based on public data for 2015–2020, an examination of the strategic compliance of factors of the external and internal environment of Aeroflot as of 2020 was conducted. It is concluded that the most relevant direction of the company’s development in 2020 was the accelerated replacement of leased aircraft with its own aircraft. The proposed method makes it possible to assess the dynamic portrait of the company’s interaction with its external environment in conditions of information uncertainty.

SWOT-анализАэрофлотSSMD-анализдинамикастохастическийстратегическое соответствиестратегияSWOT-analysisAeroflotSSMD-analysisdynamicsstochasticstrategic matchingstrategyReferencesKangas J., Kajanus M., Leskinen P., Kurttila M. Incorporating MCDS and voting into SWOT — basic idea and experiences. Serbian Journal of Management. 2016;11(1):1–13. DOI: 10.5937/sjm11–9661Kangas J., Kajanus M., Leskinen P., Kurttila M. Incorporating MCDS and voting into SWOT — basic idea and experiences. Serbian Journal of Management. 2016;11(1):1–13. DOI: 10.5937/sjm11–9661.Hill T., Westbrook R. SWOT analysis: It’s time for a product recall. Long Range Planning. 1997;30(1):46–52. DOI: 10.1016/S 0024–6301(96)00095–7Hill T., Westbrook R. SWOT analysis: It’s time for a product recall. Long Range Planning. 1997;30(1):46–52. DOI: 10.1016/S 0024–6301(96)00095–7Houben G., Lenie K., Vanhoof K. A knowledge-based SWOT-analysis system as an instrument for strategic planning in small and medium sized enterprises. Decision Support Systems. 1999;26(2):125–135. DOI: 10.1016/S 0167–9236(99)00024-XHouben G., Lenie K., Vanhoof K. A knowledge-based SWOT-analysis system as an instrument for strategic planning in small and medium sized enterprises. Decision Support Systems. 1999;26(2):125–135. DOI: 10.1016/S 0167–9236(99)00024-XComan A., Ronen B. Focused SWOT: Diagnosing critical strengths and weaknesses. International Journal of Production Research. 2009;47(20):5677–5689. DOI: 10.1080/00207540802146130Coman A., Ronen B. Focused SWOT: Diagnosing critical strengths and weaknesses. International Journal of Production Research. 2009;47(20):5677–5689. DOI: 10.1080/00207540802146130Helms M.M., Nixon J. Exploring SWOT analysis — where are we now? A review of academic research from the last decade. Journal of Strategy and Management. 2010;3(3):215–251. DOI: 10.1108/17554251011064837Helms M.M., Nixon J. Exploring SWOT analysis — where are we now? A review of academic research from the last decade. Journal of Strategy and Management. 2010;3(3):215–251. DOI: 10.1108/17554251011064837Kurttila M., Pesonen M., Kangas J., Kajanus M. Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis — a hybrid method and its application to a forest-certification case. Forest Policy and Economics. 2000;1(1):41–52. DOI: 10.1016/S 1389–9341(99)00004–0Kurttila M., Pesonen M., Kangas J., Kajanus M. Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis — a hybrid method and its application to a forest-certification case. Forest Policy and Economics. 2000;1(1):41–52. DOI: 10.1016/S 1389–9341(99)00004–0Novicevic M.M., Harvey M., Autry C.W., Bond E.U. Dual-perspective SWOT: A synthesis of marketing intelligence and planning. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. 2004;22(1):84–94. DOI: 10.1108/02634500410516931Novicevic M.M., Harvey M., Autry C.W., Bond E.U. Dual-perspective SWOT: A synthesis of marketing intelligence and planning. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. 2004;22(1):84–94. DOI: 10.1108/02634500410516931Коврига С.В. Методические и аналитические основы когнитивного подхода к SWOT-анализу. Проблемы управления. 2005;(5):58–63.Kovriga S.V. Methodical and analytical fundamentals of cognitive approach to SWOT analysis. Problemy upravleniya = Control Sciences. 2005;(5):58–63. (In Russ.).Lu W. Improved SWOT approach for conducting strategic planning in the construction industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2010;136(12):1317–1328. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)Co.1943–7862.0000240Lu W. Improved SWOT approach for conducting strategic planning in the construction industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2010;136(12):1317–1328. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)Co.1943–7862.0000240Nikolić D., Spasić J., Živković Z., Djordjević P., Mihajlović I., Kangas J. SWOT-AHP model for prioritization of strategies of the resort Stara Planina. Serbian Journal of Management. 2015;10(2):141–150. DOI: 10.5937/sjm10–8928Nikolić D., Spasić J., Živković Z., Djordjević P., Mihajlović I., Kangas J. SWOT-AHP model for prioritization of strategies of the resort Stara Planina. Serbian Journal of Management. 2015;10(2):141–150. DOI: 10.5937/sjm10–8928Abdel-Basset M., Mohamed M., Smarandache F. An extension of neutrosophic AHP-SWOT analysis for strategic planning and decision-making. Symmetry. 2018;10(4):116. DOI: 10.3390/sym10040116Abdel-Basset M., Mohamed M., Smarandache F. An extension of neutrosophic AHP-SWOT analysis for strategic planning and decision-making. Symmetry. 2018;10(4):116. DOI: 10.3390/sym10040116Vlados C. On a correlative and evolutionary SWOT analysis. Journal of Strategy and Management. 2019;12(3):347–363. DOI: 10.1108/JSMA-02–2019–0026Vlados C. On a correlative and evolutionary SWOT analysis. Journal of Strategy and Management. 2019;12(3):347–363. DOI: 10.1108/JSMA-02–2019–0026Agarwal R., Grassl W., Pahl J. Meta-SWOT: Introducing a new strategic planning tool. Journal of Business Strategy. 2012;33(2):12–21. DOI: 10.1108/02756661211206708Agarwal R., Grassl W., Pahl J. Meta-SWOT: Introducing a new strategic planning tool. Journal of Business Strategy. 2012;33(2):12–21. DOI: 10.1108/02756661211206708Weihrich H. The TOWS matrix — A tool for situational analysis. Long Range Planning. 1982;15(2):54–66. DOI: 10.1016/0024–6301(82)90120–0Weihrich H. The TOWS matrix — A tool for situational analysis. Long Range Planning. 1982;15(2):54–66. DOI: 10.1016/0024–6301(82)90120–0Benzaghta M.A., Elwalda A., Mousa M.M., Erkan I., Rahman M. SWOT analysis applications: An integrative literature review. Journal of Global Business Insights. 2021;6(1):55–73. DOI: 10.5038/2640–6489.6.1.1148Benzaghta M.A., Elwalda A., Mousa M.M., Erkan I., Rahman M. SWOT analysis applications: An integrative literature review. Journal of Global Business Insights. 2021;6(1):55–73. DOI: 10.5038/2640–6489.6.1.1148Михненко П.А. Математическое моделирование процессов развития и управления организационными изменениями хозяйственных организаций. М.: Университет Синергия; 2015. 214 с.Mikhnenko P.A. Mathematical modeling of development processes and organizations changes management. Moscow: Synergy University; 2015. 214 p. (In Russ.).Mikhnenko P.A. Los modelos matemáticos del desarrollo organizacional y los cambios organizacionales. Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa. 2018;25:42–53. URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/195397/1/1025693981.pdfMikhnenko P.A. Los modelos matemáticos del desarrollo organizacional y los cambios organizacionales. Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa. 2018;25:42–53. URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/195397/1/1025693981.pdf

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.