managementscienceУправленческие науки / Management SciencesManagement Sciences2304-022X2618-9941Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2404-022X-2020-13-2-16-25managementscience-449Research ArticleСТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТSTRATEGIC MANAGEMENTМакроэкономические факторы, определяющие накопленную стоимость сделок m&a на рынке СШАMacroeconomic Determinants of Accumulated M&A Transaction Values within the U.S. Markethttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7329-8344ТрегубИ. В.Tregub I.  V.

Илона В. Трегуб — доктор экономических наук, профессор, профессор департамента математики

Москва 

Ilona V. Tregub — Dr. Sci. (Econ), Professor, Professor of the Department of Mathematics 

Moscow

itregub@fa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1112-6253БутырскийА. Ф.Butyrskiy A.  F. 

Артем Федорович Бутырский — студент 3-го курса факультета международных экономических отношений

Москва 

Artem F. Butyrskiy — 3-year student, Department of International Economic Relations 

Moscow

202163@edu.fa.ruФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation2023200720231321625Copyright © Трегуб И.В., Бутырский А.Ф., 20232023Трегуб И.В., Бутырский А.Ф.Tregub  I.V., Butyrskiy  A.F.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/449

Согласно корпоративной мудрости слияния и поглощения (M&A) являются известной стратегией для достижения экстенсивного (неорганического) роста на рынке и, как следствие, получения финансового преимущества и стратегического превосходства. Таким образом, эти методы, бесспорно, занимают одно из первых мест среди инструментов корпоративного управления. С учетом вышесказанного, целью работы является исследование того, в какой степени макроэкономические показатели влияют на годовой агрегированный объем слияний и поглощений, осуществленных в Соединенных Штатах Америки в исторический период 1985–2021 гг. Предмет исследования определен как рынок слияний и поглощений США. С помощью уравнения множественной линейной регрессии методом наименьших квадратов было определено, что логарифмированный рост ВВП вместе с учетной ставкой оказывает значительное положительное влияние на объяснение зависимой переменной, в то время как доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций США имеет отрицательную связь. Кроме того, было проведено несколько статистических тестов, чтобы гарантировать достоверность полученных результатов и возможность использования модели для оценки форвардных значений. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в выявлении эконометрической модели для прогнозирования объемов слияний и поглощений, позволяющей принимать эффективные корпоративные управленческие решения с учетом сроков и настроений рынка.

The corporate wisdom propounds mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a notable strategy for extensive (non-organic) growth in the market and, as a result, gaining financial advantage and strategic superiority and ascendancy along the way. Hence, this instrument undeniably occupies the highest ranks of instruments for corporate management. Considering all aforementioned, the work object is to research to which extend the macroeconomic indicators have an effect on the annually aggregated volume of mergers and acquisitions, entered within the United States of America in the historical period of 1985–2021. The subject of the study is defined as U.S. mergers and acquisitions market. By employing the ordinary least square method of a multiple linear regression equation, it was determined that logarithmic GDP growth together with the discount rate had a significant positive effect on the explanation of the dependent variable, while the 10-year US Treasury bond yield had a negative relationship. Further, several statistical tests were conducted to ensure the authenticity of results obtained and potential for utilization of the model for the purpose of estimation forward values. The practical significance of the research is recognized as uncovering econometric model for the purpose of forecasting mergers and acquisitions volumes, resulting in effective corporate management decisions with regard to timing and market sentiment.

слияния и поглощениямакроэкономические детерминантыэконометрическая модельмножественная регрессияпроверка гипотезпостроение моделиmergers and acquisitionsmacroeconomic determinantseconometric modelmultiple regressionhypothesis testingmodel constructionReferencesFerreira M.P., Santos J.C., Ribeiro de Almeida M.I., Reis N.R. Mergers & acquisitions research: A bibliometric study of top strategy and international business journals, 1980–2010. Journal of Business Research. 2014;67(12):2550–2558. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.03.015Ferreira M.P., Santos J.C., Ribeiro de Almeida M.I., Reis N.R. Mergers & acquisitions research: A bibliometric study of top strategy and international business journals, 1980–2010. Journal of Business Research. 2014;67(12):2550–2558. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.03.015Finn F., Hodgson A. Takeover activity in Australia: Endogenous and exogenous influences. Accounting & Finance. 2005;45(3):375–394. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467–629x.2004.00125.xFinn F., Hodgson A. Takeover activity in Australia: Endogenous and exogenous influences. Accounting & Finance. 2005;45(3):375–394. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467–629x.2004.00125.xMelicher R.W., Ledolter J., D’Antonio L. A time series analysis of aggregate merger activity. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1983;65(3):423–430. DOI: 10.2307/1924187Melicher R.W., Ledolter J., D’Antonio L. A time series analysis of aggregate merger activity. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1983;65(3):423–430. DOI: 10.2307/1924187Resende M. Mergers and acquisitions waves in the UK: A Markov-switching approach. Applied Financial Economics. 2008;18(13):1067–1074. DOI: 10.1080/09603100701408155Resende M. Mergers and acquisitions waves in the UK: A Markov-switching approach. Applied Financial Economics. 2008;18(13):1067–1074. DOI: 10.1080/09603100701408155Maksimovic V., Phillips G., Yang L. Private and public merger waves. The Journal of Finance. 2013;68(5):2177– 2217. DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12055Maksimovic V., Phillips G., Yang L. Private and public merger waves. The Journal of Finance. 2013;68(5):2177– 2217. DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12055Benzing C. The determinants of aggregate-merger activity: Before and after Celler-Kefauver. Review of Industrial Organization. 1991;6(1):61–72. DOI: 10.1007/BF00428001Benzing C. The determinants of aggregate-merger activity: Before and after Celler-Kefauver. Review of Industrial Organization. 1991;6(1):61–72. DOI: 10.1007/BF00428001Choi S.H., Jeon B.N. The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: Evidence from US time-series data. Applied Financial Economics. 2011;21(4):233–249. DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.528365Choi S.H., Jeon B.N. The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: Evidence from US time-series data. Applied Financial Economics. 2011;21(4):233–249. DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.528365Komlenovic S., Mamum A., Mishra D. Business cycle and aggregate industry mergers. Journal of Economics and Finance. 2011;35(3):239–259. DOI: 10.1007/s12197–009–9098-yKomlenovic S., Mamum A., Mishra D. Business cycle and aggregate industry mergers. Journal of Economics and Finance. 2011;35(3):239–259. DOI: 10.1007/s12197–009–9098-yRhodes-Kropf M., Robinson D.T., Viswanathan S. Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics. 2005;77(3):561–603. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.015Rhodes-Kropf M., Robinson D.T., Viswanathan S. Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics. 2005;77(3):561–603. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.015Erel I., Liao R.C., Weisbach M.S. Determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The Journal of Finance. 2012;67(3):1045–1082. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.2012.01741.xErel I., Liao R.C., Weisbach M.S. Determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The Journal of Finance. 2012;67(3):1045–1082. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.2012.01741.xGugler K., Mueller D.C., Weichselbaumer M. The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective. International Journal of Industrial Organization. 2012;30(1):1–15. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2011.04.006Gugler K., Mueller D.C., Weichselbaumer M. The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective. International Journal of Industrial Organization. 2012;30(1):1–15. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2011.04.006Gorton G., Kahl M., Rosen R.J. Eat or be eaten: A theory of mergers and merger wave. The Journal of Finance. 2009;64(3):1291–1344. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.2009.01465.xGorton G., Kahl M., Rosen R.J. Eat or be eaten: A theory of mergers and merger wave. The Journal of Finance. 2009;64(3):1291–1344. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.2009.01465.xKiymaz H. Cross-border acquisitions of US financial institutions: Impact of macroeconomic factors. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2004;28(6):1413–1439. DOI: 10.1016/S0378–4266(03)00125–0Kiymaz H. Cross-border acquisitions of US financial institutions: Impact of macroeconomic factors. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2004;28(6):1413–1439. DOI: 10.1016/S0378–4266(03)00125–0Echols M.E., Elliott J.W. Rational expectations in a disequilibrium model of the term structure. The American Economic Review. 1976;66(1):28–44Echols M.E., Elliott J.W. Rational expectations in a disequilibrium model of the term structure. The American Economic Review. 1976;66(1):28–44Macrotrends. Macrotrends LLC. URL: https://www.macrotrends.net (accessed on 18.09.2022).Macrotrends. Macrotrends LLC. URL: https://www.macrotrends.net (accessed on 18.09.2022).FRED economic data. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org (accessed on 18.09.2022).FRED economic data. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org (accessed on 18.09.2022).United States — M&A statistics. Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions & Alliances. URL: https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/united-states-ma-statistics/ (accessed on 18.09.2022).United States — M&A statistics. Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions & Alliances. URL: https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/united-states-ma-statistics/ (accessed on 18.09.2022).Faust K. Very local structure in social networks. Sociological Methodology. 2007;37(1):209–256. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467–9531.2007.00179.xFaust K. Very local structure in social networks. Sociological Methodology. 2007;37(1):209–256. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467–9531.2007.00179.xPeterson R.A., Brown S.P. On the use of beta coefficients in meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology. 2005;90(1):175–181. DOI: 10.1037/0021–9010.90.1.175Peterson R.A., Brown S.P. On the use of beta coefficients in meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology. 2005;90(1):175–181. DOI: 10.1037/0021–9010.90.1.175Le Courtois O., Xu X. Corporate name changes: The case of M&As within the S&P 500 index. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2020. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3729147Le Courtois O., Xu X. Corporate name changes: The case of M&As within the S&P 500 index. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2020. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3729147Mendes Barreto M. C., Barnett V. Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 1999;6(2):119–133. DOI: 10.1023/A:1009609902784Mendes Barreto M. C., Barnett V. Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 1999;6(2):119–133. DOI: 10.1023/A:1009609902784Bharath S.T., Dahiya S., Saunders A., Srinivasan A. Lending relationships and loan contract terms. The Review of Financial Studies. 2011;24(4):1141–1203. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhp064Bharath S.T., Dahiya S., Saunders A., Srinivasan A. Lending relationships and loan contract terms. The Review of Financial Studies. 2011;24(4):1141–1203. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhp064Durbin J. An alternative to the bounds test for testing for serial correlation in least-squares regression. Econo metrica.1970;38(3):422–429. DOI: 10.2307/1909548Durbin J. An alternative to the bounds test for testing for serial correlation in least-squares regression. Econo metrica.1970;38(3):422–429. DOI: 10.2307/1909548

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.