managementscienceУправленческие науки / Management SciencesManagement Sciences2304-022X2618-9941Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2304-022X-2023-13-4-22-33managementscience-500Research ArticleМАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ И МОДЕЛИ В УПРАВЛЕНИИMATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS IN MANAGEMENTМатематическая модель поиска оптимального решения задачи по формированию цепочек поставок сырья лесопромышленных предприятий в условиях неопределенностиMathematical Model for Searching for an Optimal Solution to the Problem of Forming Supply Chains for Raw Materials of Forestry Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertaintyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3235-6429РогулинР. С.RogulinR. S.

Родион Сергеевич Рогулин – кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры «Математики и моделирования»

Владивосток

Rodion S. Rogulin – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associated Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Modeling

Vladivostok

rafassiaofusa@mail.ruВладивостокский государственный университет экономики и сервисаРоссияVladivostok State University of Economics and ServiceRussian Federation2023030220241342233Copyright © Рогулин Р.С., 20242024Рогулин Р.С.Rogulin R.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/500

В данной работе рассматриваются важные аспекты, связанные с проблемами формирования цепочек поставок и объемов производства на лесоперерабатывающих предприятиях. Основной акцент делается на вопросах оценки оптимальности принятых решений. Исследование фокусируется на предприятиях, не имеющих собственных источников сырья и стремящихся найти наиболее приемлемое решение, исходя из горизонта планирования на основе данных о сделках, реализованных на товарно-сырьевой бирже. Цель исследования заключается в создании математической модели, которая позволяет установить оптимальный объем производства товаров на базе формируемых цепочек поставок сырья с товарно-сырьевой биржи с учетом доли его полезного объема, времени нахождения лотов в пути и неопределенности, связанной с предложением и логистикой. В работе были использованы математическое моделирование, теория и методы оптимизации. Тестирование модели с помощью данных Санкт-Петербургской биржи и предприятий Приморского края позволило определить оптимальные траектории прибыли, объема производства и другие важные показатели. В работе также поднимаются вопросы планирования цепочек поставок и объемов производства, анализируются регионы – источники сырья и приводятся преимущества и недостатки представленной математической модели. Полученные результаты представляют интерес для топ-менеджмента лесопромышленных предприятий, стремящихся повысить эффективность своей деятельности, и могут явиться основой для оценки рациональности сырьевых сделок на товарно-сырьевой бирже России.

This paper examines important aspects related to the problems of forming supply chains and production volumes at forest processing enterprises. The main emphasis is on assessing the optimality of decisions made. The study focuses on enterprises that do not have their own sources of raw materials and that are seeking to find the most appropriate solution based on the planning horizon based on data on transactions carried out on the commodity exchange. The purpose of the study is to create a mathematical model that allows us to establish the optimal volume of production of goods based on the formed supply chains of raw materials from the commodity exchange, considering the share of its useful volume, the time the lots are in transit and the uncertainty associated with supply and logistics. The following research methods were proposed: mathematical modeling, theory and optimization methods. Testing the model using data from the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and enterprises of the Primorsky Territory made it possible to determine the optimal trajectories of profit, production volume and other important indicators. The work also raises issues of planning supply chains and production volumes, analyzes regions – sources of raw materials and presents the advantages and disadvantages of the presented mathematical model. The results obtained are of interest to the top management of forestry enterprises seeking to improve the efficiency of their activities and can be the basis for assessing the rationality of commodity transactions on the Russian Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.