managementscienceУправленческие науки / Management SciencesManagement Sciences2304-022X2618-9941Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2304-022X-2025-15-1-20-35managementscience-618Research ArticleТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА УПРАВЛЕНИЯTHEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENTФакторы, определяющие рост ВВП Китая: эмпирический анализ макроэкономических переменныхDeterminants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variablehttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-9864-6741АлиИ.AliI.

Имран Али — магистрант

Imran Ali — Master

imranalieco@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-4103-9434ДжонасА.JonasA.

Аджибу Джонас — кандидат экономических наук

Ajibu Jonas — PhD

ajibujonas@gmail.comНИУ ВШЭРоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationИндонезийский международный исламский университетИндонезияIndonesian International Islamic UniversityIndonesia2025130320251512035Copyright © Али И., Джонас А., 20252025Али И., Джонас А.Ali I., Jonas A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/618

Целью исследования явился анализ влияния прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ), торговли и различных макроэкономических факторов на рост ВВП в Китае за период 1982–2022 гг. С помощью модели авторегрессии с распределенным лагом (ARDL) исследовалась динамическая взаимосвязь между ростом ВВП и пятнадцатью независимыми переменными, включая ПИИ, экспорт, торговлю, общий долг и реальные процентные ставки. Результаты ARDL-модели указывают на значительное долгосрочное влияние некоторых переменных, в частности баланса текущего счета, экспорта и торговли товарами. Краткосрочная динамика показала, что увеличение ПИИ и реальных процентных ставок положительно влияет на рост ВВП, а увеличение долга, экспорта и конечного потребления — отрицательно. Тест границ ARDL подтверждает долгосрочную связь между переменными. Диагностические проверки не выявили    проблем с нормальностью, гетероскедастичностью или серийной корреляцией. Этот всесторонний анализ предоставляет ценные данные для разработки эффективной экономической политики, способствующей устойчивому росту и стабильности в быстро развивающейся экономике Китая.

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting sustained growth and stability in China’s rapidly evolving economy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.