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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">managementscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Управленческие науки / Management Sciences</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Management Sciences</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2304-022X</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2618-9941</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/2304-022X-2026-16-1-145-158</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">managementscience-798</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА УПРАВЛЕНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENT</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Диагностика банкротства как фазового процесса</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Diagnosis of Bankruptcy as a Phased Process</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1144-4486</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Камолов</surname><given-names>С. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kamolov</surname><given-names>S. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сергей Георгиевич Камолов —  доктор экономических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры управления активами факультета международных экономических отношений</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sergei G. Kamolov —  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Prof. of Dept. of Asset Management, Faculty of International Economic Relations</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">s.kamolov@inno.mgimo.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6463-3494</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Девятова</surname><given-names>Д. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Devyatova</surname><given-names>D. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дарья Дмитриевна Девятова —  старший аналитик</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Daria D. Devyatova —  Senior Analyst</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">thesvirina@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>МГИМО МИД России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>MGIMO University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>АНО «Институт сравнительных исследований умных городов»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>ANO “Institute for Comparative Research on Smart Cities”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>145</fpage><lpage>158</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Камолов С.Г., Девятова Д.Д., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Камолов С.Г., Девятова Д.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kamolov S.G., Devyatova D.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/798">https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/798</self-uri><abstract><p>Корпоративное банкротство — это фазовый управленческий процесс, в ходе которого слабые сигналы и маскирующий их информационный шум определяют траекторию деградации задолго до краха организации. К такому выводу мы пришли, сместив фокус диагностики с бухгалтерской и финансовой отчетности в направлении институциональной чувствительности. Концепция фазовой динамики банкротства синтезирована на основе феноменологии рассогласования «декларируемое-фактическое», оценки интенсивности обратной связи и тональности публичных коммуникаций компании. Цель исследования — разработка фазовой модели ранней диагностики банкротства и определение порога утраты рефлексивности, маркирующего для управляющей системы точку невозврата. Эмпирическая часть работы включает реконструкцию предкризисных профилей банкротств компаний Enron, LTCM и Barings Bank. В результате качественного и количественного анализа поведенческих паттернов и публичных коммуникаций на основе авторских индикаторов установлено, что устойчивое одновременное превышение порогов значений последних сопровождается сжатием «окна возможностей» для лиц, принимающих решения, и ускорением эскалации. Полученные результаты позволяют сместить акцент с реагирующего (reactive) на упреждающее (proactive) управление, что снижает вероятность лавинообразного перехода к необратимой фазе кризиса.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Corporate bankruptcy can be understood as a phase-based managerial process in which weak signals, together with the informational noise that obscures them, shape the trajectory of organizational degradation long before the actual collapse occurs. This conclusion emerges from shifting the focus of bankruptcy diagnostics away from traditional accounting and financial reporting toward institutional sensitivity. The concept of the phase dynamics of bankruptcy is synthesized from the phenomenology of the discrepancy between declared and actual practices, the assessment of feedback intensity, and the tonal analysis of a company’s public communications. The aim of this study is to develop a phase model for the early diagnosis of bankruptcy and to determine the threshold of loss of reflexivity, which marks a point of no return for the managerial system. The empirical part of the study includes the reconstruction of pre-crisis bankruptcy profiles of Enron, Long-Term Capital Management, and Barings Bank. Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis of behavioral patterns and public communications using the authors’ original indicators, it was established that a stable simultaneous exceedance of their threshold values is accompanied by the contraction of the “window of opportunity” for decisionmakers and by an acceleration of escalation dynamics. The findings allow a shift in emphasis from reactive to proactive management, thereby reducing the likelihood of an avalanche-like transition to the irreversible phase of crisis.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>банкротство</kwd><kwd>слабые сигналы</kwd><kwd>информационный шум</kwd><kwd>фазовая модель</kwd><kwd>обратная связь</kwd><kwd>ранняя диагностика</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>bankruptcy</kwd><kwd>weak signals</kwd><kwd>information noise</kwd><kwd>phase model</kwd><kwd>feedback</kwd><kwd>early warning</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Plato. The republic. Books VIII-IX. Transl. from ancient Greek. London: Arcturus; 2017. 304 p.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Plato. The republic. Books VIII-IX. Transl. from ancient Greek. 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