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Concerning the Use of Indicators’ Marginal (Threshold) Values of the Russian Federation Economic Security

https://doi.org/10.26794/2304-022X-2017-7-3-12-20

Abstract

The most important component of strategic planning is to ensure counteracting the challenges and threats to economic security, preventing crises in various areas of the Russian economy and avoiding the decline in the population living standards. The Strategy of the Russian Federation Economic Security for the Period until 2030, approved by the Russian Federation President Decree of May 13, 2017 No. 208, is aimed at solving these tasks. In order to timely identify challenges and threats to economic security, prompt response to them, development of management decisions and recommendations, a risk management system is formed, an important element of which is a set of economic security indicators. The approved Strategy establishes a list of 40 indicators that allow monitoring and analyzing the economic security status, but the problem of the indicators’ assessment has not been solved yet. Two administrative innovations are formulated in the article. It is suggested, firstly, to use a three-level scale of indicator values for the purposes of monitoring, analysis and assessment of the economic security status and, secondly, to use the historical analogies method to justify the indicators values of the second and third levels. The indicators of the first level are the target values describing the desired state of the object at the end of the planning period and are fixed in the strategic planning documents. Indicators of the second level fix the transitive values characterizing the break point, beyond which the controlled system loses its ability to self-development without the use of special additional (anti-crisis) measures. The third level of indicators forms the critical values beyond which the country loses its economic and political independence (state sovereignty), for the restoration of which a transition to a mobilization economy is required. The method of historical analogies is based on the selection of modern national history certain periods, which would, according to expert estimates, correspond to a certain economy status in the context of economic security. The advantage of this method is that the estimates are based on the actual reported values of the interrelated indicators, the evaluation criterion is the situation as a whole “as it is”. 2013 is proposed as a transitional period, 1995 as a crisis year. In conclusion, the article substantiates a multistage algorithm for analyzing and assessing the values of economic security indicators.

About the Authors

A. B. Vissarionov
Institute for Macroeconomic Studies
Russian Federation
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Principal Researcher


R. R. Gumerov
Institute for Macroeconomic Studies
Russian Federation
PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Leading Researcher


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For citations:


Vissarionov A.B., Gumerov R.R. Concerning the Use of Indicators’ Marginal (Threshold) Values of the Russian Federation Economic Security. Management Sciences. 2017;7(3):12-20. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/2304-022X-2017-7-3-12-20

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