Modeling Municipal Level Territorial Systems’ Development: Conceptual and Methodical Aspects

The article ** deals with the problem improving state economic policy mechanisms aimed at introducing effective methods and tools for regulating economy of municipalities in management practice. The results of systematizing the most urgent problems of effective management of municipal level socio-economic system at the present stage of their development are presented. As a separate problem, there is a lack of a clear system for monitoring, analyzing and effective using management information in making strategic decisions. The analysis provides qualitative assessment of unresolved problems consequences identified for the municipalities economy development, outlines the main directions and potential reserves for overcoming these problems, including the development and application of integrated modeling and forecasting tools at the municipal level. Comparative evaluation of the most well-known approaches in modeling municipal and regional levels economy is considered in order to analyze the available scientific background. The performed analysis allowed to distinguish conditionally several aggregated classes of approaches in this area differing in system construction logic, formalization and modeling methods. The following main approaches are considered: models of general economic equilibrium; models based on probability methods; models of system dynamics; models based on intelligent technologies. The main principles and requirements to perform modeling tools for municipal development are formulated taking into account the analysis results. The approach to development imitational model of the municipalities socio-economic development is justified based on the integrating use of economic and mathematical methods, tools for scenario analysis and simulation modeling, as well as modern intellectual technologies allowing to develop mechanisms for the balanced development of the economy real sector and social sphere that preserve municipalities’ sustainable economic development for the long perspective. Practical testing results are presented for proposed theoretical and methodological approaches.

economic and mathematical model, municipality, systematic approach, economic policy, scenario analysis, fuzzy logic, simulation

1. Neshchadin A., Fattakhov R. Prioritety gosudarstvennoj politiki v sfere regional’nogo razvitiya Rossijskoj Federacii[State policy priorities in the sphere of the Russian Federation regional development]. Obshchestvo i ehkonomika — Society and Economics, 2013, no. 1–2, pp. 108–123 (in Russian).

2. Ulyaeva A.G, Ataeva A.G.Issledovanie faktorov formirovaniya i razvitiya gorodskih aglomeracij kak napravleniya usileniya mezhterritorial’nogo vzaimodejstviya v regione [Investigating the factors of formation and development of urban agglomerations as a direction for strengthening interterritorial interaction in the region]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo — Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2015, no. 12–1 (65–1), pp. 369–373 (in Russian).

3. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Bakhtizina N.V. CGE model’ social’no-ehkonomicheskoj sistemy Rossii so vstroennymi nejronnymi setyami [CGE model of Russia’s socio-economic system with built-in neural networks]. Moscow, CEHMI RAN — CEMI RAS, 2005, 152 p. (in Russian).

4. Suspitsin S.A. Koncept-modeli strategicheskogo prognozirovaniya i indikativnogo planirovaniya regional’nogo razvitiya [Conceptual models of strategic forecasting and indicative planning of regional development]. Region: ehkonomika i sociologiya — The Region: Economics and Sociology, 2009, no. 1, pp. 40–63(in Russian).

5. Abdikeev N.M., Malova D.V. Dinamicheskoe modelirovanie i scenarnyj analiz razvitiya innovacionnyh klasterov v regionah [Dynamic modeling and scenario analysis of innovative clusters development in the regions]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya — Financial analytics: problems and solutions, 2012, no. 31, pp. 12–23 (in Russian).

6. Gafarova E.A.Imitacionnye modeli kompleksnogo regional’nogo razvitiya [Simulation models of complex regional development]. Upravlenie bol’shimi sistemami: sbornik trudov — Management of large systems: collection of works, 2013, no. 45 (16), pp. 206–221 (in Russian).

7. Tsybatov V.A. Modelirovanie ehkonomicheskogo rosta [Modeling of economic growth]. Samara, Samar. gos. ehkon. un-t — Samar State Economics University, 2006, 385 p. (in Russian).

8. Nizamutdinov M.M., Yamilova L.S. Podhod k formalizacii strategii proizvoditelej v ramkah postroeniya modeli ehkonomiki Approach to the formalization of producers’ strategy within the framework of building the region’s economy model]. Problemnyj analiz i gosudarstvenno-upravlencheskoe proektirovanie — Problem analysis and statemanagement design, 2012, no. 1, pp. 38–47 (in Russian).

9. Oreshnikov V.V.Informacionno-logicheskaya skhema upravleniya povedeniem agenta «CHelovek» [Informationlogic scheme for controlling the behavior of the agent “A human-being”]. Molodoj uchenyj — The Young Scientist, 2016, no. 5–4 (109), pp. 26–29 (in Russian).

10. Stroyev P.V. Transformacii prostranstvennoj struktury Rossii [Transformation of Russia spatial structure]. Vestnik Instituta ehkonomiki Rossijskoj akademii nauk — Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics, 2014, no. 4, pp. 61–70 (in Russian).