Факторы, определяющие рост ВВП Китая: эмпирический анализ макроэкономических переменных

Целью исследования явился анализ влияния прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ), торговли и различных макроэкономических факторов на рост ВВП в Китае за период 1982–2022 гг. С помощью модели авторегрессии с распределенным лагом (ARDL) исследовалась динамическая взаимосвязь между ростом ВВП и пятнадцатью независимыми переменными, включая ПИИ, экспорт, торговлю, общий долг и реальные процентные ставки. Результаты ARDL-модели указывают на значительное долгосрочное влияние некоторых переменных, в частности баланса текущего счета, экспорта и торговли товарами. Краткосрочная динамика показала, что увеличение ПИИ и реальных процентных ставок положительно влияет на рост ВВП, а увеличение долга, экспорта и конечного потребления — отрицательно. Тест границ ARDL подтверждает долгосрочную связь между переменными. Диагностические проверки не выявили    проблем с нормальностью, гетероскедастичностью или серийной корреляцией. Этот всесторонний анализ предоставляет ценные данные для разработки эффективной экономической политики, способствующей устойчивому росту и стабильности в быстро развивающейся экономике Китая.

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